Daggy vs. the Market
Week 1
How This Whole Racket Works
The Two Players
Daggy is not one model. It's 8 agents forecasting every game — 4 of them wired to the Daggy statistical engine, the rest working from what they can reason out — combined into a single pick per game, before kickoff.
Kalshi isn't a rival forecaster. It's the live price real money is trading at, on a market where anyone can bet on the outcome. When we say “Daggy vs. Kalshi,” we mean model vs. market — not two people guessing.
The Tally (W-L)
The simplest measure there is: did the pick win or lose? Easy to read at a glance, and it's the headline number for a reason.
The Real Score (Brier)
The Brier score checks whether the confidence was earned, not just whether the pick happened to land. Two forecasters can both go 1-0 on a game and still score very differently:
Who's Actually Predicting
8 LLM agents predict every game — 4 wired to the Daggy engine, 4 running solo.